The Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, recently issued his Transport Strategy for public consultation.  In Chapter 4, dealing with challenges and strategic policies, it is noted that London achieved a five per cent mode shift from the car between 2000 and 2007. The strategy intends to build on this, with an aim of increasing the mode share of public transport, walking and cycling from 58 per cent to 64 per cent.

The Mayor has set a specific target to reduce London’s greenhouse gas emissions by 60 per cent from the 1990 level by 2025.  This will require an approximate halving of CO₂ emissions in the period to 2025.

The strategy records that since 1990, population, employment and travel demand in London have increased by around 10 per cent. However, since 1990 CO₂ emissions from ground-based transport in London have remained largely constant, indicating that CO₂ efficiency and travel demand have increased at approximately equal rates. Accelerated population and employment growth is anticipated in London in the period to 2025, and beyond to 2031. It is clear that achievement of CO₂ emissions targets will require fundamental changes in transport CO₂ efficiency and/or our travel behaviour, far in excess of that experienced by previous generations.

Most of the policy intentions in the strategy employ the rather vague formulation: ‘…The Mayor, through Transport for London, and working with [other stakeholders], will seek to improve…’.  But the carbon emissions commitment is firmer: ‘The Mayor, through TfL, and working with….will take the necessary steps to deliver…’  Nevertheless, a substantial gap remains between the carbon target and what will be delivered by planned policy measures (see Figure 58).

This brave but welcome commitment from Boris Johnson will arguably will be the dominant driver of change in London’s transport system over the next 20 years.