The Chief Scientific Adviser at the Department for Transport has published three ‘think pieces’ commissioned from experts.  The most interesting is entitled Reducing the need for travel by improving land use predictions informing transport planning.

Land use planning is a process of continual review, as a result of constant local political and community engagement.  Local planning documents are largely qualitative and usually have a 10 year time horizon. In contrast, conventional transport analysis is rather rigid, relies heavily on quantitative analysis and seeks to assess impacts up to 60 years into the future.  Such analysis requires the use of transport modelling tools supported by land use modelling.

The study concludes that much of the work currently undertaken to develop land use predictions is done by and for transport planners, not land use planners; and that current expectations of land use forecasts, and thus to some extent of transport forecasts, are unrealistic.

The underlying problem, in my view, is the requirement of the Department for Transport for investment to be supported by quantified economic analysis with costs and benefits calculated as far as 60 years into the future.  We need a more agile approach to infrastructure investment, the topic of another think piece commissioned by the Chief Scientific Adviser.