An article in the Financial Times of 3 February (title: 'The thrill is gone') argues that the the current slump in new car sales is due not just to belt-tightening and lack of consumer credit, but also because people are willing to keep their cars for longer.  In the US the average age of trade-ins has reached 75 months, up from 62 months at end-2006.  In part this is because of improved quality of cars -they rarely break down or rust as they used to.   But there are signs of deeper shifts in consumer attitudes towards cars, notably amongst younger people - 'frugalism is the new cool'; it's no longer a rite of passage to own a car in Japan.

Data I have seen recently on travel in London show a decline in car use, miles per person down 20% 1996-2005, while public transport use has correspondingly risen, with overall distance per person steady over the period.   Perhaps this reflects the increasingly  international nature of the London economy, with many younger people coming to study and work.  Other likely factors include the problem of parking, as well as the growing tendency to live in inner city areas.

The UK population is projected to increase from the present 61m to 71m in 2031.  If most of the extra 10m will reside in existing urban areas where scope for car use is limited, the case for investment in public transport would be strong.  Higher population densities and more extensive public transport could result is relatively less car ownership, as in London where this is 0.77 per household compared with 1.14 nationally.  Could car ownership be approaching saturation after a century of growth?