Blog - November 2009
I was at a well attended meeting of the Transport Economist’s Group on 28 October to hear a presentation on High Speed Rail by John Segal, of the consultants MVA, who had been commissioned by Greengauge 21, a not-for profit promoter of a high speed rail network. The report is published.
The main aim of the exercise is to see how expected demand growth for rail travel could be met by providing new high speed lines. The report contains a wealth of interesting analysis of particular interest to railways buffs, but not limited to them. There is also a full economic analysis. I was struck by the conclusion that for a London-Birmingham-Manchester route, two-thirds of the HSR passengers would be existing rail travellers. Only 11% would have switched from air travel, and only 5% from car. The carbon reduction benefits seem pretty modest.
The economic benefits depend on how much rail travellers would value shorter journey times. Given the productive use that we tend to make of trips by train, the answer may not be enough to justify the investment costs of High Speed Rail.
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