The Committee on Climate Change has recently published its first annual report, arguing that a major priority is to decarbonise electricity generation. For road transport, the CCC seeks a saving of 13 MtCO2 by 2020 from behavioural change (‘smarter choices’, eco-driving, enforcing 70mph speed limit, integrated transport and land use planning, and road pricing) and 11 MtCO2 from tighter EU regulation of new car emissions.  The main impact of electric vehicles is post-2020, but earlier support is needed, including construction of infrastructure for battery charging.  In the long run, the cost saving from running on electricity should outweigh the cost of the batteries, but in the short run price support (subsidy) is likely to be needed to ensure market uptake of electric vehicles.

Complementing the CCC report, Ofgem (the energy regulator) has published a set of energy market scenarios, to examine the prospects for secure and sustainable energy supplies over the next 10-15 years.  A key conclusion is that high levels of investment are needed to secure supplies and meet carbon targets – more than double the recent rate of investment.

Decarbonising electricity generation helps the case for High Speed Rail as a lower carbon alternative to road and air travel.   On the other hand, new electricity generation capacity will be competing with HSR for public funds, given that both are certain to require some level of public subsidy to supplement private sector investment.  The combination of the credit crunch and the public sector financial deficit exacerbates the difficulty.

The business case for HSR will be based on the standard transport appraisal methodology – notional time savings to individuals plus wider economic benefits gained by businesses, making assumptions about future carbon and oil prices, but with limited ability to model and value the consequences of land use changes.  How might this help reach a decision on the relative priority of HSR investment versus electricity supply, we might ask.  The answer is unclear at present. But it is arguable that, as regards strategic national priorities, investment in decarbonised electricity seems likely to trump investment in HSR.