The UK Government has published its Low Carbon Transition Plan, aimed at implementing the first stage of a legally binding commitment to cut carbon emissions 80% by 2050, with an intermediate target to reduce 2020 emissions 18% below 2008 levels. The plan covers all sectors of the economy, with transport’s share put at 14% reduction by 2020.  Other sectors are expected to achieve more, for instance 29% for housing. Such differences in expectation reflect the relative cost-effectiveness of achieving savings though measures appropriate to each sector.

Alongside the Government’s overall plan, the Department for Transport has published a plan to achieve low carbon transport. The ambition is for road and rail transport to be largely decarbonised by 2050.  Most of the content reiterates measures already announced, including EU regulations to reduce vehicle carbon emissions and promotion of electric cars.  The supporting Impact Assessment contains a detailed analysis of the costs and carbon savings expected from these measures – important reading for those taking a close interest in this topic.

One noteworthy aspect of the Impact Assessment: the Department is now substantially more cautious than previously about the impact of Smarter Choices measures (to encourage cycling, walking and public transport use) - as perceptively headlined by Local Transport Today.  The current assumption is that car km in 2020 could be reduced by 3.7%, compared with up the 11% assumed previously – largely because it is now supposed that the main impact of these measures would be on shorter trips in urban areas.  Moreover, this estimate explicitly neglects ‘rebound effects’, which in this case would arise from drivers who were not persuaded to leave their cars at home taking advantage of the reduced congestion to make longer trips in the fixed time they allow themselves for travel.

The Department of Transport is evidently sceptical about the Smarter Choices approach, in part because of lack of robust data of effectiveness from pilot schemes, but also because these packages of measures are diverse, locally focused and driven by local authorities - hence the Department doubts that this approach can realistically be seen as a national measure.

I tend to share this scepticism.  The problem with attempting to effect behavioural change from car use to slower modes is that access and choice are reduced, given that travel time is fixed on average.  This goes against the grain of developments over the last century and a half since the era of modern transport began.  So I agree with the government’s approach that the main policy focus in the transport sector must be to reduce carbon emissions through new and improved technologies.

The question, however, is whether the policy measures proposed will deliver the necessary carbon savings.  Emissions from road transport are not included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme.  Nor are price increases planned, as would arise from carbon pricing or fuel tax hikes.  So, however good the strategy, there remains a major question concerning deliverabilty.