Latest population projections for the UK published by the Office of National Statistics record a current 61.4m in mid-2008, projected to rise to 71.6m by 2033.

Earlier this year the Department of Communities and Local Government published projections of the number of households in England to 2031, consistent with the previous set of population projections: 27.8m, an increase of 6.3m from the present number.  Population growth is the main driver of this 30% increase.

What are the implications for travel and traffic?  The Department for Transport’s TEMpro programme allows access to the national Trip End Model projections of growth in travel demand, which reflect the official projections of population growth by region.  As far as I can make out, population growth within regions is assumed to be distributed between urban, suburban and rural areas to reflect current patterns.  

However, the distribution of the increase in population and households is to some extent subject to policy.  For instance, were the increase to be channelled into existing urban areas, where opportunities for road construction are very limited, the case for strengthening public transport provision would be strong. 

In its recent report, the Committee on Climate Change has addressed the relationship between land use and transport (Chapter 6, Box 6.18). The CCC considers that a planning and transport policy focus that put new housing developments within cities and large towns could reduce annual transport carbon emissions by at least 3.6MtCO2 by 2030, compared with a ‘market’ outcome.  The Committee rightly calls for a new approach to planning that fully accounts for transport emissions.