The Department for Transport has published an incisive report on transport modelling at regional level, commissioned from the seasoned consultant Denvil Coombe.  30 models are reviewed against DfT criteria. None are considered straightforwardly suitable for general use.  Some might become suitable with development, for others this is unlikely, for yet others suitability is unknown, and some are designated as unsuitable. 

I am pleased to see that the models are named.  When Denvil Coombe presented his initial findings at a conference last July, the models were annonymised, which meant those wanting to commission modelling work could not judge the best option.  So all credit to DfT for naming names.  Nevertheless, the disappointing overall outcome of this evaluation raises serious questions about the feasibility of modelling the interaction between land use and transport, and hence for the use of models in appraising proposed developments such as High Speed Rail schemes.

The focus of the present study on regional models meant that DfT’s own National Transport Model was exempt from scrutiny.  It would be good if DfT would commission Denvil Coombe to confirm that the NTM meets the Department’s criteria for a suitable model.